Now that the Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire Primary is complete, some would have us think that the Democrats have chosen a clear winner for the Party's nomination for president. But, from a political science perspective, nothing could be further from the truth. Now we all can understand and appreciate why the "Big Mo" (momentum) is needed to enthuse and lift a campaign with the "wind at its back", but this years contest is not quite like the others we have seen.
Despite two rounds of voting, it appears a majority of voters still have not decided on any single candidate to pull away from the pack. After New Hampshire, we see Mayor Pete Buttigieg clinging to a small delegate lead, while maintaining a solid second place finish in New Hampshire. But does Pete have the political infrastructure to maintain and sustain a nationwide campaign to secure the nomination? Amy Klobuchar now seems to have picked up some momentum in New Hampshire, but she is reported to be very short on available campaign cash and too lacks a solid political infrastructure to sustain her through the remaining primaries. One thing we can tell from the early voting, is that Elizabeth Warren lacks enough of a base to sustain her candidacy and her future is perhaps the must muddled. If she eventually is forced to abandon her campaign, she may have a significant impact on who does seal the nomination.
That leaves to wild cards on the table. One is beginning to see the way to the back door, the other has the independent financial strength to kick in the front door. Joe Biden's poor showing in Iowa and New Hampshire leaves him with South Carolina and Nevada to pull back "onto the scene" as a viable candidate. Although his numbers with African-Americans in South Carolina remain strong, nothing is certain in electoral politics and taking the African-American voting block is certainly not something to be considered a lock (at any time). At this point, Biden appears the most wounded along side Warren. But what about Bloomberg?
Amongst purists in the Democratic Party, Bloomberg seems to pose a threat. Once a Republican (so was Warren), Bloomberg's tenure as New York City's mayor was riddled with inconsistencies,. The worst of which was his policy of "Stop and Frisk:" specifically targeting young Blacks and Hispanics for criminal stops. After all was said and done, the data plainly revealed the policy to be nothing but a misguided effort to "clear the streets" of gang and gun violence. Except the only thing it did do was alienate African American communities from the policing authorities - and rightfully so. Bloomberg did though reduce the prison population of people of color well below the national average and the murder and gun crime rates did fall under his tenure. The man also led significant efforts to improve lower income education, while embracing efforts to combat climate change. So what gives? New Hampshire was not only a primary state for the Democrats. New Hampshire also is an open Primary" which allows Republicans, Democrats and Independents to vote for any candidate on the primary ballot. And guess what happened? Bloomberg scored significant support from Republicans and Independents. Does Bloomberg have a path to the nomination? As in everything political, trends take time to develop. and anyone telling us Bernie now has the clearest path to the nomination is clearly ignoring one of the truths of political science. We won't know util after Super Tuesday who the real leading candidate is for the Democratic nomination. And then, we still might have a brokered convention.
One thing is for sure though. The biggest threat to our democracy is Donald Trump. Once the Democrats unite behind their candidate, we must all fall into line and support that candidate. Trump must go. We can worry about the next president's policies after that happens. Until then, the fight for the nomination continues. Strap in. We all have work to do. Have a great week.
Despite two rounds of voting, it appears a majority of voters still have not decided on any single candidate to pull away from the pack. After New Hampshire, we see Mayor Pete Buttigieg clinging to a small delegate lead, while maintaining a solid second place finish in New Hampshire. But does Pete have the political infrastructure to maintain and sustain a nationwide campaign to secure the nomination? Amy Klobuchar now seems to have picked up some momentum in New Hampshire, but she is reported to be very short on available campaign cash and too lacks a solid political infrastructure to sustain her through the remaining primaries. One thing we can tell from the early voting, is that Elizabeth Warren lacks enough of a base to sustain her candidacy and her future is perhaps the must muddled. If she eventually is forced to abandon her campaign, she may have a significant impact on who does seal the nomination.
That leaves to wild cards on the table. One is beginning to see the way to the back door, the other has the independent financial strength to kick in the front door. Joe Biden's poor showing in Iowa and New Hampshire leaves him with South Carolina and Nevada to pull back "onto the scene" as a viable candidate. Although his numbers with African-Americans in South Carolina remain strong, nothing is certain in electoral politics and taking the African-American voting block is certainly not something to be considered a lock (at any time). At this point, Biden appears the most wounded along side Warren. But what about Bloomberg?
Amongst purists in the Democratic Party, Bloomberg seems to pose a threat. Once a Republican (so was Warren), Bloomberg's tenure as New York City's mayor was riddled with inconsistencies,. The worst of which was his policy of "Stop and Frisk:" specifically targeting young Blacks and Hispanics for criminal stops. After all was said and done, the data plainly revealed the policy to be nothing but a misguided effort to "clear the streets" of gang and gun violence. Except the only thing it did do was alienate African American communities from the policing authorities - and rightfully so. Bloomberg did though reduce the prison population of people of color well below the national average and the murder and gun crime rates did fall under his tenure. The man also led significant efforts to improve lower income education, while embracing efforts to combat climate change. So what gives? New Hampshire was not only a primary state for the Democrats. New Hampshire also is an open Primary" which allows Republicans, Democrats and Independents to vote for any candidate on the primary ballot. And guess what happened? Bloomberg scored significant support from Republicans and Independents. Does Bloomberg have a path to the nomination? As in everything political, trends take time to develop. and anyone telling us Bernie now has the clearest path to the nomination is clearly ignoring one of the truths of political science. We won't know util after Super Tuesday who the real leading candidate is for the Democratic nomination. And then, we still might have a brokered convention.
One thing is for sure though. The biggest threat to our democracy is Donald Trump. Once the Democrats unite behind their candidate, we must all fall into line and support that candidate. Trump must go. We can worry about the next president's policies after that happens. Until then, the fight for the nomination continues. Strap in. We all have work to do. Have a great week.
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